It wasn't fraud folks... probably

So with all the stuff going on with Alvin Greene, dolls and all, I am not sure whether people are so upset that this guy actually won or that he is actually taking himself seriously as a candidate. We all know the FEC and SLED are investigating where he got the money, which is interesting enough in and of itself; but I am curious as to where all of these other conspiracy theories are coming from: he is a Republican Plant and the like. Seriously folks, lets consider this for a minute.

What is the purpose of planting anyone to run against DeMint. He has one of the safest seats in the country. No Republican running for Congress has won by less than 7% in the past 6 years (and that is Joe Wilson on the low end). It simply makes no sense to run a plant in the Dem. Primary unless their is a concerted effort at expanding Political Theatre in South Carolina - unless DeMint has some form of Larry Craig-esque secret in his closet he will win regardless of his opponent.

Allow me to propose another alternative, well a combined alternative really: the voters are simply not that informed coupled with the fact that Rawl was targeting the wrong set of Dem backers. We already know that the median voter's choice is based primarily upon party identification. We also know that the median voter is not well informed on policy specifics. Couple this with the fact that Rawl was spending his time and efforts, betting on a Primary Coronation, with the Dem elites and you have a recipe for disaster if anyone is on the ticket ahead of you.

This may sound like conjecture but I have looked at the data. Greene’s victory does not associate well with any of the traditionally tested impacts on voter choice. The margin of victory was not well correlated to voter turnout, so there was no precint flooding going on. There was, however, a significant correlation between the down-ticket races that people normally do not care about and Greene's victory. Bottom line, people did not know much about either candidate so they simply voted for the first name they saw.

Now I know that everyone likes to think of themselves as well informed and likes to believe that their opinion is not only valid but accurate - if that were truly the case, Alvin Greene would not have won a single precint, let alone over 95% of all the counties in the state. Sorry to say folks, but when stuff like this happens it is obvious that there needs to be less debating platitudes about Healthcare, Immigration, etc. and mre debating the merits of one candidate or another... but seriously is anyone going to buy the first edition Alvin Greene action figure?